Friday, 8 May 2009

Wrong calculation for flu fatality again

I don't understand where he got the 6.4% fatality figure but it could
be the total number of deaths/total number of cases reported.

This is incorrect. Since it took 2 weeks to kill a person(including
the time to confirm the virus type), the number of deaths must be
divided by the number of cases 2 weeks ago, not the current figure.

Now it has become more complicated because many patients can be cured
with Tamilflu. Initially, in Mexico, they were not treated with
Tamilflu so the fatality rate is much higher. Certainly more than
10%, at least for those that were reported for treatment.

Once they were treated with Tamilflu, it became zero so far in UK. The
2 deaths in USA could be cases of misdiagnosis.

Indonesia to expand coverage of pandemic simulations to anticipate
swine flu

Erwida Maulia , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 05/06/2009 6:45
PM | National

Indonesia will expand the coverage of its flu pandemic simulations to
a number of other regions in an attempt to anticipate lingering
threats of bird flu and newly striking swine flu.

It will also establish a special team within the National Committee
for Bird Flu that will monitor the implementation of pandemic
anticipative measures.

Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie revealed
the plans after a Cabinet meeting at the Presidential Palace on
Wednesday, which discussed a number of issues, including the new H1N1
virus threat.

"The President (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) says all the simulation
plans must be carried and checked," Aburizal said.

He added that to prevent the entering of the virus to the country via
participants of the upcoming World Ocean Conference (WOC) in Manado on
May11-15 , the Indonesian government has installed three
thermoscanners at Samratulangi International Airport to scan
passengers carrying the virus.

According to Aburizal, among regions having had the flu pandemic
simulations include Makassar, Bali, Tangerang and a Sumatra province.

"Next we will continue doing the simulations. We shall not stop and
have to stay alert, although the case fatality ratio of swine flu only
stands at 6.4 percent," he said.

This is significantly different from bird flu, whose case fatality
ratio in Indonesia nearly touches 90 percent from over 130 reported
infection cases.

Aburizal said to the date no swine flu infection cases has been
detected in Indonesia.

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