Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Re: Wrong calculation for flu fatality again

On May 11, 12:17 am, CKSF <AGL...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On May9,7:22pm, "Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad" <othm...@lycos.com>
> wrote:
> > On May9,11:23pm, CKSF <AGL...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > Wow ... the entire world of clinical and scientific experts are wrong,
> > > and a crazy expouses racist man who lives in Sabah, knows it all.
> > Clinincal and scientific experts may not be experts in simple
> > statistics. They should always refer to statisticians.
> > This is not the first time they had been wrong. During the SARS case
> > the fatality rate was also wrongly calculated.
> > Didn't you notice?
> You are a stupid fuck. Experts do not understand simplce statistics???
> Hey, you are the expert then? LOL
> You one of the most egotistical and stupid fuck I have ever come
> across.
> Education is wasted on a fool like you.

Or is it on you?

REad below for an extract of a paper in Journal Science from a
Professor in Imperial College. Imperial College is an elite University
in UK.

Journal Science is a peer reviewed journal but expedited because of
urgencies. This should be the way because it allows other researchers
in other fields, or even individuals such as myself to comment on
their results.

The figure used is Case Fatality Rate, not Fatality Rate. It is just
the number of cases divided by the number of deaths. It can be close
to the fatality rate if the case figure is for a duration much larger
than than the "fatality duration" which is 14 days for flu.


"From The Straits Times, Singapore
2 May 2003 "

For a discussion of the true Fatality Rate read the above.

"For example, in Hongkong, the death rate is obtained by dividing the
number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases.

But some say this formula assumes that all hospitalised patients will
not die of Sars, and this questionable assumption leads to an
under-estimate of fatality rate.

A more appropriate estimate, it has been argued, would be the ratio of
deaths over the number of people who have either recovered or died of
Sars. Using this method, Hongkong's Sars mortality rate would have
been three times higher than the 6 per cent declared by the
government. "

To get a better Fatality Rate for the current Swine Flu refer to

"Most people who have died from swine flu are those who have weak
immune systems because they suffer from chronic illnesses, he said.

Gallegos said all of the other 26 people in Chihuahua, including 11 in
Juárez, who were confirmed to have the swine flu have recovered
without complications."

One death out of 27 who were admitted in Chihuahua. Still we don't
have the duration figure but it shows that the fatality rate is higher
than 4%.

The good news is that this is only for those with compromised immune
system. Not sure if they were treated with Tamilflu or not.

FAtality rate should be differentiated between those treated with
Tamilflu or not. I suspect those that got treated within 48 hours will
all survive despite being obese or diabetic, or even asthmatic.


Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study
11 May 2009 16:48:55 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click [nFLU])

*New strain may have originated in Mexican village

*More than 20,000 Mexicans likely infected

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON, May 11 (Reuters) - The new strain of H1N1 flu that has
killed 56 people in Mexico and been carried around the world by
travelers appears to be more easily passed along than the regular
seasonal flu, researchers reported on Monday.

As many as 23,000 Mexicans were likely infected with the swine flu
virus, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and colleagues
reported in the journal Science.

They also found evidence to support the theory that the outbreak
originated in the village of La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, which
had been the subject of intense speculation.

The international team, calling themselves the World Health
Organization Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, looked at both
the pattern of disease spread and the early genetic analysis of the

"Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6,000-32,000) individuals
had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case
fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4 percent based on confirmed and suspect
deaths reported to that time," they wrote.

"Thus while substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears
less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957."

The 1918 pandemic was the worst of the 20th century, killing anywhere
between 25 million and 100 million people, depending on estimates. It
was the first appearance of the H1N1 virus. The 1957 pandemic of H2N2
killed an estimated 2 million people globally. Seasonal flu kills
about 250,000 to 500,000 people annually.

Looking at the pattern in La Gloria, the researchers said it looked as
if the virus was transmitted human to human over 14 to 73 generations
-- meaning one person infected another, who infected another, up to 73

"Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal
flu," they wrote.

The first case was seen in La Gloria around February 15th, they wrote,
citing reports and not hard evidence.


Quick genetic analysis suggests the virus may have first infected
someone around Jan. 12.

The researchers said other countries have had a better opportunity to
watch out for the virus, a never-before-seen mixture of a Eurasian
swine flu virus and a so-called "triple reassortant" virus seen
circulating in pigs that includes some bits of human and bird flu

"As the epidemic spreads further, it is likely that severity will vary
from country to country depending on health care resources and the
public health measures adopted to mitigate impact," they added.

Globally, WHO has confirmed 4,694 infections in 30 countries with 53
deaths, all but four in Mexico. The United States has the most cases
outside Mexico, with 2,618 cases and 3 deaths.

While it is widespread across the United States, WHO said the new H1N1
virus shows no signs of sustained person-to-person spread outside of
North America. (Editing by Alan Elsner and Julie Steenhuysen)

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