Wednesday, 20 May 2009

Swine Flu worse than Spanish Flu 1918

Look at the graph above:
The peak Case Fatality Rate is 548 per 100,000 in March but dropped to
less than 250 in May.

The picture indicated Fatality Rate which is most probably wrong. The
figure is most probably death/cases, without taking into account the
duration of the disease.
This current Swine flu has a Case Fatality Rate of 80 in 10176 cases,
making it at 786 per 100,000 which is much higher than the Case
Fatality Rate but this rate is for May which is usually has much low
flu rate because it is at the end of the spring season.

In US it is 128 / 100,000 but this is misleading because the flu has
just started in late April in USA.

It may not be as high as the peak 1918 flu deaths, but it is already
at 62%. It will be worse in winter when there is no UV light of the
Sun to kill Flu virus.

Since in 1918, the flu deaths peak in winter, it shows that genetic
mutation is less likely compared to the larger dose that patients get
of the Flu virus in winter. The larger dose of Flu virus overwhelms
the victim's immune system even for those with previous vaccination.

Factually this Swine Flu is already worse than Spanish 1918 Flu, it
can only get worse instead of better.

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