to be less than 200 compared to 400 for normal flu, in a year.
This is despite infecting 50% of the population being infected.
Although 50% is high compared to 30% for the figures collected by WHO
for all over the world, New Zealand officials estimate the fatality
rate to be much lower than Normal Flu.
If current WHO statistics is to be used, the death rate will be 3000
infection rate is only 30%.
Unless New Zealanders are much fitter than US and Canada citizens, it
is very unlikely that New Zealand will have much lower fatality rate
for Swine Flu than Normal Flu.
Are there significantly less people who are obese, asthmatic and
diabetic in New Zealand? Maybe. But how about pregnant women? Are
there significantly less pregnant women in New Zealand compared to US
What is more worrying is that Swine flu killed even perfectly healthy
individuals of all ages, which Normal Flu will never kill. 4 cases had
been reported so far all over the world.
Number crunchers put their spin on flu toll
4:00AM Thursday Jun 25, 2009
By Martin Johnston
* Critically ill NZ swine flu woman now stable
* University Games swine flu restrictions 'impractical'
More than 3000 people could die from a mild influenza pandemic,
according to Treasury figures.
The agency's April 29 briefing paper to Finance Minister Bill English
on the potential economic impact of a swine flu pandemic includes
assumptions for a "severe scenario", based on the 1918 flu pandemic,
and a "mild scenario" based on the 1957 and 1968 pandemics.
The current pandemic of swine flu is regarded as moderate so far in
New Zealand - the virus is highly infectious and spreads easily in the
community, but for most people it causes only mild to moderate
symptoms, although these can still be unpleasant.
The Treasury says that although much is uncertain about how swine
influenza may evolve, based on the mild scenario possibly 30 per cent
could become infected, of whom 0.25 per cent could die.
That suggests more than 1.2 million people could be infected, of whom
3200 could die.
However, the Ministry of Health's latest estimates - contained in a
document circulated to the health sector on Friday by Steve Brazier of
the National Health Co-ordination Centre - are that half the
population could catch the pandemic virus and that the number of
deaths is not likely to exceed 200 and may be substantially lower.
The deputy director of public health, Dr Fran McGrath, said yesterday
that the ministry did not have firm assumptions about infection and
case-fatality rates because the situation was evolving.
"The current estimate from the World Health Organisation is that about
2 per cent of cases will develop severe illness."
Seasonal flu affected about 10 per cent of people each year and caused
around 400 deaths, Dr McGrath said.
The confirmed swine flu cases, past and current, stood at 386
yesterday, although the actual number will be far higher.