Thursday, 3 September 2009

Saudi Arabia case fatality rate 0.66%: true fatality 2%

But as the title of this news article states, the recovery is only at
98%, making fatality rate at 2%.

0.66% could just be the case fatality rate without taking into account
the time.
It is just the number of confirmed cases vs number of fatalities.

Whereas the recovery rate is the number of patients confirmed of swine
flu versus those that that had recovered. Those that do not recover,
we assume them as dead.

Taking into account the number of Swine Flu cases that are mild, and
the fact that many people may not get infected, partially because they
already have built-in immunity if they are older than 54 years old,
the overall fatality should be less, down to about 1%.

So it is in line with the overall fatality rate of 0.67% in Wales in

The sad thing is that there is a cure for Swine Flu this time in the
form of Tamilflu but it is deployed too late to be effective. Despite
reports of it being effective even after 7 days, it may be due to
other factors, such as luck. It was never verified scientifically or
even investigated in detail.

Thursday 3 September 2009 (13 Ramadan 1430)

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98% H1N1 victims recovered
Arab News

RIYADH: Ninety-eight percent of the 3,500 people who contracted the
H1N1 virus in the Kingdom have recovered from swine flu, the Health
Ministry said.

In a statement issued here on Wednesday, the ministry said the health
condition of thousands of pilgrims in Makkah and Madinah was

"The number of swine flu cases reported among pilgrims in Makkah since
the beginning of Ramadan was 28. None of them have died and all of
them have recovered," the ministry said.

As many as 265 swine flu cases have been reported in Makkah since the
virus first appeared in the Kingdom on May 27. In Madinah, a total of
206 cases have been reported including 17 during Ramadan.

"We have not noticed any increase in swine flu cases during the Umrah
season of Ramadan compared to previous months," the ministry said. It
also reported the death of four Saudis including three women recently,
bringing the total number of swine flu deaths in the Kingdom to 23,
adding that most of them died of previous health complications.

"The rate of swine flu deaths in the Kingdom stood at 0.66 percent,
coping with the international rate," the ministry pointed out.

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