We should believe this Quebec figures because they should do more
The comment that it is milder than Spanish Flu in 1918 is wrong
because in Summer fatality in New York was much less than 0.2%.
WHO has already admitted that it spreads very rapidly and some " self
appointed experts" argue that it cannot be the case because Swine Flu
is supposed to be milder than Spanish flu. What they miss is that WHO
only quotes the facts. Many of them also believe that Swine Flu is
milder than Spanish Flu.
It also kills all ages, like Spanish Flu.
What is worrying is that the death rate is higher despite having a
cure, i.e. Tamilflu and better health care.
There is no mutation in Spanish Flu.
The worst will be in the northern hemisphere. Although the infection
rate is high even in summer, it will be even worse in Winter.
The 10% of New Yorker infected in the summer months, will add another
40% in a short period in Winter. The seeds that were sown in summer
will germinate rapidly in winter overwhelming health care and cause
The end fatality rate for Spanish flu was only 0.67% worst case in
What the world should do is to slow down the spread of this Swine Flu
so that health care and hospitals can cope. Also Tamilflu must be used
properly, i.e. within 48 hours on the onset of symptoms.
Wishing that Tamilflu will work even after 48hours is just wishful
Quebec has decided against issuing new pandemic flu guidelines even
though public-health authorities predict a second, perhaps deadlier
wave of H1N1 infections might sweep North America as early as this
The government is basing its decision on the fact that to date the
swine flu has proved to be far less severe than initially feared,
Health Minister Yves Bolduc told reporters yesterday.
"The message we have from (the Public Health Department) is that we
have had a very low level of H1N1 infections," Bolduc said. "The peak
"We have to be prudent," he added, "but on the other hand, we can't
close schools or put into practice measures that defy common sense."
As of Monday, laboratory tests have confirmed a total of 2,666 cases
of H1N1 infections in Quebec. Of that number, there have been 24
deaths - all involving people already at risk.
The Quebec death rate thus far is nine-tenths of one per cent, exactly
in line with the global rate. During a typical flu season, the
mortality rate is one-tenth of one per cent.
Horacio Arruda, director of the protection branch of the Quebec Public
Health Department, urged Quebecers to remain vigilant. He recommended
that people wash their hands frequently and cough into their elbows.
Those who are sick with the flu should stay at home.
Those considered at risk are infants under 2 years old, those
suffering from chronic disease like diabetes, people over the age of
60 and pregnant women, especially those in their second and third
trimesters. If anyone in those groups falls ill with flu symptoms,
they should see a doctor, Arruda advised. And since the death of a 23-
year-old pregnant woman from H1N1 on Aug. 14, Arruda noted that
hospitals have changed their practice slightly. Should a pregnant
woman be hospitalized with H1N1, the medical staff will treat the
patient with anti-viral drugs immediately, judging that the benefits
of the medications outweigh the potential risks.
As for schools and daycares, there is no reason to close them, Arruda
said. "If the epidemiological situation changes and becomes more
severe, we would then change our opinion," he added.
Some school boards have decided that all their pregnant staff should
go on preventive maternity leave. Arruda said that is not the
government policy and suggested that each case be assessed on its
merits in consultation with a doctor.
Quebec will launch an inoculation campaign to protect against H1N1
once the vaccine becomes available, probably by December or January.
That could coincide with the start or middle of the second wave of
H1N1 infections. Arruda said he plans to attend a federal meeting on
the H1N1 vaccine to determine exactly when it will be ready.
In the first weeks of the H1N1 pandemic, the new virus appeared to be
no deadlier than the seasonal flu. It's now viewed as a little more
severe than the seasonal flu, but far less deadly than flu viruses in
major pandemics. H1N1 has also been shown to infect a
disproportionately larger number of adolescents and young adults.
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