from Swine Flu based on the 95% incidence of Swine Flu over normal
Compare this with China that has zero fatality despite having a
population 500 times larger than Singapore.
That is based on the assumption that Swine Flu is as lethal as normal
flu. Based on reports so far, Swine Flu is much more deadly. BAsed on
the age distribution, it appears to be more than 5 times deadly.
Even assuming that Swine Flu is only 2 times deadly, it will take the
death toll in Singapore to 24,000 i.e. 1% of the population of
Singapore which is what is shown in those nations that had been
affected with Argentina the worst at 1.4%.
The disparity is in the level of health care and effort to control the
spread of the disease.
China has zero fatality.
This is assuming that health care is sufficient for all patients. As
WHO experts had mentioned, it is only the beginning of the pandemic.
Later on, when health care is owerwhelmed, fatality will be much
The lady died because of incompetence of Singaporean Health Care
workers. She should have been diagnosed with Swine Flu in line with
WHO official recommendation instead of waiting for official Swine Flu
tests that are too slow and expensive.
If she were given Tamilflu earlier, she should have survived.
Japan is a lesson. Despite having failed to control the spread of
Swine flu as well as China, it has managed to have zero fatality as
July 25, 2009
H1N1 FLU PANDEMIC
Fourth H1N1-related death
Woman had thyroid disease; two people with no risk factors critically
By Jessica Jaganathan & Teh Joo Lin
The 42-year-old Chinese Singaporean woman died of pneumonia, with H1N1
as a contributing factor. -- ST PHOTO: SAMUEL HE
A FOURTH patient has died in Singapore after developing complications
from Influenza A (H1N1). The 42-year-old Chinese Singaporean woman
died of pneumonia, with H1N1 as a contributing factor, said the
Ministry of Health on Friday.
She went to Changi General Hospital's (CGH) emergency department last
Saturday after having had a fever, a cough, a sore throat and
shortness of breath for five days. She was moved to intensive care
that day but died on Friday morning. Earlier, the ministry had said
she had thyroid disease and hypertension, but it has since clarified
that she suffered only from the former.
At her wake in Sengkang last night, her husband said her thyroid
condition had been under control for two years, and she had not needed
medication. 'She was in fine health. That's why it is a total
surprise,' the man, who declined to be named, said.
Before she was warded last week, the woman, who had a 12-year-old son,
had seen doctors thrice in five days to treat flu-like symptoms,
including a fever. She went to a general practitioner's clinic on
July14. The next day, she sought a second opinion at another clinic.
Last Saturday, she visited the second clinic again. This time, the
doctor told her she might have a lung infection and advised her to go
to the hospital. She was nursing a fever of 38.6 deg C at the time,
said her 51-year-old brother-in-law, who drove her to CGH.
He said that sometime after 11pm that day, she was 'still conscious
and could still talk'. 'She could even pick up the phone to call her
husband and call us.' But just a few hours later, her situation
suddenly worsened. She was wheeled into intensive care the next day.
Singapore's four H1N1-related deaths have occurred within the space of
a week. The first came last Saturday, when a 49-year-old man who had
multiple health problems such as diabetes, hypertension and high
cholesterol died. On Wednesday, two others died - a 13-year-old boy
with epilepsy and a 55-year-old man with motor neuron disease.
When asked if these deaths in such a short span were cause for alarm,
the Health Ministry noted that 600 people a year die from seasonal flu
Experience elsewhere has shown that fatalities will rise as more
people get infected, and Singaporeans should be mentally prepared to
see a similar pattern here, the ministry said. It added: 'Our best
chance to reduce the adverse effects of the pandemic is to continue to
be socially responsible to reduce the disease transmission and seek
early medical treatment if unwell.'
Meanwhile, two people in their 20s with no known risk factors have
fallen critically ill after testing positive for the virus. They are
the first seriously ill patients who do not fall into the high-risk
category of those with underlying illnesses, who are pregnant or who
have low immunity. Both are in intensive care, with low levels of
oxygen in their blood. Of the 94 H1NI patients now in hospital, five
are critically ill.