A U.S. crash investigation ends up suggesting the feature actually increases safety—significantly.
by
Tom Randall
Tesla’s driver-assistance features, known collectively as Autopilot, have been vindicated.
The U.S. Department of Transportation has closed its investigation into
a May 7 collision with a tractor-trailer that killed a driver using
Autopilot. The agency found no indication of a safety problem with it.
In fact, the evidence provided by Tesla included crucial data that’s
been missing from the safety debate surrounding automated cars: crash
rates.
Tesla is in a unique position to determine the precise
impact of Autopilot on crash rates, more so than any other car
manufacturer. That’s because while all Tesla vehicles come with the
hardware necessary for Autopilot, you need a software upgrade that costs
thousands of dollars to make it work. Since buyers can add Autopilot
features after purchase, this provides a perfect before-and-after
comparison.
It turns out that, according to the data Tesla
gave investigators, installing Autopilot prevents crashes—by an
astonishing 40 percent. The chart below comes from the report NHTSA
issued while concluding its investigation. Approximately one-third of
the mileage on the cars was logged before the upgrade to Autosteer (the
most controversial component of the driving suite), while the remaining
miles were accrued after installation.
Crash rates in model years 2014-2016 Model S and Model X vehicles.
Source: NHTSA, Tesla
Tesla’s
reputation took a hit after it disclosed the death that triggered the
federal probe. It’s no exaggeration to say it changed the way people
think about self-driving cars, despite the thousands of deaths annually
tied to ordinary vehicles. Consumer Reports went so far as to call on Tesla
to revoke the features until changes were made. What Tesla had
initially designed to be a safety feature had suddenly become a
liability.
The only statistic that Tesla offered in its public
defense at the time was flimsy: Teslas had been driven on Autopilot for
130 million miles before the first fatal crash, compared with a national
U.S. rate of 94 million miles per fatality. With only one death, this
was hardly good statistical evidence, especially when one considers that
the Tesla Model S has the highest safety rating to begin with and
Autopilot is recommended only for highway driving.
Now—thanks to an investigation that initially hurt the company—there is finally some real data, and it’s good news for Tesla.
“Tesla is not under any active investigation after today,” said NHTSA spokesman Bryan Thomas.
Autopilot Evolves
A
separate investigation into the fatal accident by the National
Transportation Safety Board is ongoing and will present conclusions by
early summer. The NTSB is an independent agency that has no regulatory
power.
Meanwhile Autopilot continues to evolve. Tesla rolled out a new version of its software
in November, known as Tesla 8.0. The update requires drivers to touch
the steering wheel more frequently and increases Autopilot's reliance on
radar, in addition to cameras and ultrasonic sensors. Tesla Chief
Executive Officer Elon Musk said 8.0 would have been able to detect the
truck that was involved in the fatal broadside accident. In
October, the company began shipping new Autopilot hardware with enhanced
sensors that it says will eventually enable fully autonomous driving.
Every car now ships with eight cameras and a dozen sensors to give
360-degree visibility. The company is rolling out new features that make
use of the sensor suite in regular over-the-air updates.
As the
software matures to match the new hardware, Musk said on Thursday via a
Tweet, Tesla is targeting a 90 percent reduction in car crashes.
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