In 3 months it will be 1 million deaths, given that in the previous 3
months Swine Flu had recorded 1,000 Deaths, with many deaths not yet
attributed to Swine Flu.
Next month, it will be 10,000 based on previous trends, if only proper
records are kept, but I doubt it as governments will not benefit by
showing this record and doctors too busy to tackle a looming disaster.
In 4 months, it will 10 million deaths, and 5 months, 100 million. In
6 months, 1 billion deaths which is unlikely but this is the trend.
It takes time for the vaccine to be produced and if hurriedly
produced, it will kill or paralyse many people. But it will be lower
than the 100 million deaths if we don't vaccinate key people.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSBNG25219520090805
UPDATE 1-Novavax says can ready H1N1 vaccine within 11 weeks
Wed Aug 5, 2009 9:00am EDT
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* Says can produce vaccine 11 weeks from gene sequence
* Says adhered to current good-manufacturing practices
* Plans to produce more batches for human testing
* Shares up more than 20 pct in pre-market trade
Aug 5 (Reuters) - Novavax Inc (NVAX.O) said it could manufacture its
vaccine candidate for the new strain of H1N1 influenza virus within 11
weeks of receiving the gene sequence from the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control, sending its shares up more than 20 percent in trading before
the bell.
Production of the vaccine was carried out at Novavax's new facility in
Rockville, Maryland, in accordance with current good-manufacturing
(GMP) practices laid down by health regulators, the company said.
"Demonstration of our ability to construct and produce GMP-quality
influenza vaccine within 12 weeks under real pandemic conditions is an
important and successful test of our VLP technology," Jim Robinson,
vice president of manufacturing and quality operations at Novavax,
said in a statement.
The company's virus-like particle technology uses a mimic or decoy of
the virus to shorten the time to develop a vaccine for a new viral
strain.
Novavax has completed a Phase I/IIa clinical study with a H5N1
influenza VLP vaccine candidate and is currently in mid-stage trials
with a VLP based seasonal flu vaccine candidate.
Shares of the company were up $1.07 in pre-market trade. They closed
at $4.63 Tuesday on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Anand Basu in Bangalore;
Editing by Anthony Kurian)
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