I am oversimplifying the situation by assuming that there is only one
of this case, not other multiple undetected cases that will give rise
to confirmed cases, which is what is really happening.
By the 15th of July, Malaysia already have confirmed 1000 cases. I'm
not sure of this, but I knew that by the 30th July it was more tan
1000. I am just rounding up the figure to make calculations easy but
careful to underestimate rather than overestimate. If you want a more
accurate figure you can get the corrected figure and calculate it
yourself for a much more accurate result but it is meaningless when
the data is not that accurate.
In 2 months, 1000 cases.
In 4 month, i.e. by the 15th of September, there will be 1 million
cases.
In 5 months, i.e. by the 15th of October, there will be 32 million
cases.
Based on a logarithmic table prediction, it will be 13 million by the
8th of October.
All these are based on current efforts at preventing this swine flu,
i.e. school closures and disinfections but without any thermal scanner
at airport or hospitals.
Hospitals are supposed to have tents where they measure temperatures,
but the last time I was there, about a month ago, there was nobody
there at all, and assuming that nobody wears any mask at all.
With a fatality rate of 0.4%, currently with idiotic doctors who
believe that Swine Flu is milder than Common Flu, we can expect,
4000 dead on the 15th of September
53 000 dead on the 8th of October.
In the space of 3 weeks we should have 50,000 additional deaths.
With a devastated lung, patients expect to be in the ICU for weeks to
survive and do we have enough ICU for 50,000?
If we don't, the fatality will be much higher, approaching the Spanish
Flu of 1.2%, i.e. 150,000.
Do we have enough people to bury them or more correctly, able people
to transport and bury this amount of dead people, especially when
there will be an additional 11 million infected with swine flu that
can incapacitate even strong individuals in just 3 weeks. One in 3
people will get infected.
What makes it even worse, is that, infection happens in clusters,
which makes it very probable that the maximum rate of 80% will be
infected all at once, whereas there will be none at other clusters.
Just imagine if 80% drivers are infected. Will there be enough
transport to transport the sick? You have to carry the dead yourself.
The bad news is that the vaccine will only come in September, but even
these are the trial versions only. They are untested, and it had been
proven in the past that it will also kill and paralyse healthy people
that it tried to protect, and by September, it will not be enough for
all.
Am I dreaming? No. It is just the maths. Do you want to argue with
mathematical reasoning based on facts???
CAn we stop this? Too late. Only China and Japan will survive. They
have delayed the infection sufficiently well enough to allow vaccines
to be produced reliably. Hong Kong is not doing well. It had suffered
3 deaths already, almost as much as Malaysia.
http://www.dailyexpress.com.my/news.cfm?NewsID=65047
M'sia confirms first swine flu case
Published on: Saturday, May 16, 2009
Email to a friend Printer Friendly
Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia confirmed the first case of swine flu amid
fears that some of those exposed to the infected patient could have
gone on to Indonesia.
"I can confirm (that it) is the first case in Malaysia," Health
Ministry Director General Ismail Merican told AFP.
Acting Health Minister Kong Cho Ha, who addressed a hastily-convened
press conference later, said the patient was a 21-year-old male
student who arrived on a flight from the United States on May 13,
giving no further details as to his identity.
He said the patient came down with fever, sore throat and body aches
the next day and was admitted to the Sungai Buloh quarantine facility
in Selangor the same evening and is now in stable condition.
He said five family members who live with the patient have been placed
under home quarantine in order to monitor their condition.
The Government has urged all passengers who travelled on Malaysian
airlines flight MH091 from Newark in the United States to Kuala
Lumpur, that landed at 7.15am on May 13 to contact the ministry for
further instructions.
"No passengers have been quarantined, we are still trying to trace
them," Kong said of the 199 passengers and crew onboard the flight.
"We will segregate them (when located). If they have no signs (of the
disease) they can go after a certain number of days," he added.
However, he said there was a fear that some of those exposed to the
infected patient may have gone on to Indonesia.
"We mention Indonesia because that flight is a code share with
(Indonesian carrier) Garuda so the assumption is that there could be
some passengers going to Indonesia," he added.
Officials could not immediately confirm how many Indonesians were on
board nor if any passengers continued onto Indonesia.
Kong said Malaysia's alert level would remain the same despite its
first confirmed swine flu case as the country was already at its
highest state of preparedness since the World Health Organisation
raised its flu alert to phase five out of six.
"We have been on full alert," said Kong. "We are on a level of full
preparedness."
Malaysia is also pushing for the WHO to get affected countries to
implement exit screening in order stop the spread of the disease amid
concerns that a second wave of the officially named A (H1N1) disease
could be deadlier.
"If we can have travellers from affected countries screened before
they are allowed to travel out, this will help us to contain the
spread of such virus to other places," health minister Liow Tiong Lai
told state media before heading off for the62nd WHO General Assembly
in Switzerland from May 18 to 22.
The world health body has not recommended travel restrictions
following the outbreak but has advised those who are ill to delay
their travel plans and urged returning travellers who fall ill to seek
medical treatment.
Health officials could not immediately confirm if Malaysia would be
implementing exit screening after confirming its first swine-flu case.
On Tuesday, the government urged its citizens to defer travel to the
US, Mexico, Canada, Spain and Britain following reported cases of
swine flu in those countries.
Malaysian health authorities have installed 20 thermal scanners at the
country's entry points to help detect cases with 9,324 passengers
screened so far.
The latest World Health Organisation figures show the number of
laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases worldwide is 7,520 in 33
countries.
A total of 65 people have died from the disease, most of them in
Mexico, WHO figures show. - AFP
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