An Excellent Economical Analysis of Malaysia by Anwar: unlike the idiotic Economists

" The reality is our manufacturing products are steadily losing its
competitiveness in the global market as we are relegated to the lower
rung of the value chain while competitors like Singapore upgrade
higher and higher on the value chain. This was pointed out a decade
ago, yet nothing effective has been put in place to stem this decline
apart from continuous rhetoric paid for by taxpayers' money."
These are the key words which I had missed in my arguments for higher
income and currency values. This is a convincing reason why the
Malaysian emphasis on CHEAP LABOUR, is back firing on Malaysia. This
is the fault of Malaysian businessmen but these businessmen are all
CRONY BUSINESSMEN, just like in Egypt.
Why Malaysia failed in selling cheap products while Singapore can
succeed by selling expensive but quality products? Simple. The reason
is that there are many more competitors in the cheap product category
than in the higher quality category.
Malaysian businessmen keep on insisting on cheap labour. Excuses like
conditional salary increase ONLY ON HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY, are just
excuses. As I had mentioned many times, clerks and nurses, in Malaysia
and Singapore have similar productivity and yet paid much higher in
Singapore.
I also just don't understand the Malaysian mentality. The contractors
use low quality screws while higher quality screws such as stainless
steel screws, although costing 5 times more, only cost a fraction of
the total project cost. And yet the quality increase in tremendous
because most problems with quality is in the screws that rust when
exposed to water or its vapour. Unfortunately stainless steel screws
are so rare among our hardware suppliers that it is extremely hard to
find them. Only one shop in Kota Kinabalu probably sells these M4
stainless steel screws.
For example, Kota Kinabalu sells a toilet bowl set. Supposed to be for
the whole set for RM320. This is very expensive but actually it does
not come with complete fitting screws. From Youtube, I notice that the
US toilet bowls come complete with special plastic screws. At Kota
Kinabalu, we can't even find plastic screws which should be very
cheap.
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=141963242535339&id=1653306770#!/notes/anwar-ibrahim/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-2010-malaysia-terus-terkebelakang-berbanding-jiran/10150180695746102
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2010: Malaysia Terus Terkebelakang Berbanding
Jiran
by Anwar Ibrahim on Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 1:14pm
Pertumbuhan ekonomi sebanyak 7.2% yang dicatatkan negara pada tahun
2010 perlu dikaji dengan lebih dekat untuk memahami keseluruhan
implikasinya.
Angka 7.2% perlu dibandingkan dengan pencapaian jiran-jiran kita dan
bukannya dinilai secara bersendirian. Singapura dan Indonesia
contohnya masing-masing berjaya mencatatkan pertumbuhan 14.5% dan 6.1%
dalam tahun 2010. Kedua-dua jiran kita ini mengatasi pertumbuhan
Malaysia; apatah lagi apabila pertumbuhan Indonesia adalah berdasarkan
angka pertumbuhan asas yang lebih tinggi kerana Indonesia tidak
mengalami penguncupan ekonomi dalam tahun 2009 seperti mana Malaysia
dan Singapura.
Pertumbuhan 14.5% yang dicatatkan Singapura disokong oleh pertumbuhan
kukuh dalam sektor perkilangan pada kadar 29.7% pertumbuhan tahunan.
Jika dibandingkan dengan Singapura, pencapaian kita malap dalam kedua-
dua aspek – pertumbuhan ekonomi hanyalah separuh dari yang dicapai
Singapura, sementara pertumbuhan sektor perkilangan pada kadar 11.4%
hanyalah setakat satu pertiga pencapaian Singapura.
Penjelasan kedua-dua kerajaan dalam menerangkan perbezaan pertumbuhan
sektor perkilangan ini adalah amat berbeza. Singapura menyatakan
bahawa permintaan yang kukuh dari pasaran dunia memesatkan pertumbuhan
sektor perkilangannya, sementara Malaysia pula menyalahkan pasaran
dunia sebagai akibat kelembapan sektor perkilangannya – padahal kedua-
dua negara sama-sama bergantung kepada barangan eksport dan pasaran
dunia. Hakikatnya, barangan yang dikilang di Malaysia semakin hilang
daya saingnya di pasaran dunia kerana kita tersekat di tangga nilai
yang bawah dan terpaksa bersaing dengan negara-negara yang struktur
kosnya lebih murah; sedangkan pesaing seperti Singapura terus
menghasilkan barangan bernilai tinggi. Amaran mengenai masalah ini
telah diberikan sejak sedekad yang lalu, namun tidak ada satu langkah
yang berkesan yang diambil kerajaan selain dari retorik politik yang
dibayar oleh rakyat.
Pertumbuhan sektor perkilangan yang lebih rendah berbanding jiran
diburukkan lagi dengan penguncupan dua sektor penyumbang utama di
dalam suku keempat 2010. Sektor perlombongan dan pertanian adalah
penyumbang utama kepada pendapatan Kerajaan Persekutuan melalui hasil
minyak dan gas serta kelapa sawit. Kedua-dua sektor ini mencatatkan
penguncupan dalam suku keempat pada kadar 1.3% (perlombongan) dan 4.3%
(pertanian). Akibatnya, pertumbuhan tahunan yang sangat rendah pada
kadar 0.2% (perlombongan) dan 1.7% (pertanian) adalah satu lagi
petanda bahawa ekonomi kita semakin malap.
Pandangan ini diperkuatkan lagi oleh angka-angka beberapa indeks yang
digunakan untuk menilai sentimen masyarakat niagawan dan orang ramai
mengenai hala tuju ekonomi negara. Indeks Suasana Perniagaan yang
diterbitkan oleh Institut Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER) hilang 5.4
mata dalam suku keempat 2010 untuk jatuh ke paras bawah 100 mata buat
kali pertama dalam tempoh dua tahun. Malah, keyakinan masyarakat
niagawan ke atas prospek ekonomi seperti yang dilambangkan oleh indeks
ini menunjukkan penurunan sejak awal 2010 lagi. Bagi sentimen
keyakinan orang ramai pula, walaupun Indeks Sentimen Pengguna menokok
ke paras 117.2 mata dalam suku keempat, paras itu masih belum
setanding dengan paras keyakinan tahun 2007 sebelum kerajaan menaikkan
harga minyak secara mendadak dalam tahun 2008.
YAB Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak sepatutnya lebih ikhlas dan mengakui
bahawa ada jurang yang besar di antara pengumuman projek-projek mega
yang dibuat dibawah ETP dan realiti ekonomi yang ditanggung masyarakat
niagawan dan orang ramai. Ramai di kalangan rakyat Malaysia yang masih
ragu-ragu bahawa siri pengumuman projek itu hanyalah wayang yang
akhirnya akan menguntungkan golongan pemerintah dan niagawan elit
tanpa menyelesaikan masalah pokok dan struktur ekonomi negara.
Pengurusan fiskal dan kewangan negara juga menunjukkan perbezaan yang
besar di antara Malaysia dan jiran kita, terutamanya Indonesia.
Tidak seperti Malaysia, Indonesia berjaya mengelak dari kemelesetan
ekonomi tahun 2009 dan terus mencatatkan pertumbuhan kukuh sebanyak
6.1% dalam tahun 2010, menjadikannya salah sebuah ekonomi paling
mampan di antara 20 negara terkaya di dunia. Laporan United Nations
Global Investment Trend Monitor (diterbitkan oleh UNCTAD pada 17
Januari 2011) mencatatkan aliran masuk pelaburan asing (FDI) sebanyak
USD12.8 bilion bagi tahun 2010; yang kedua tertinggi di rantau ini
selepas Singapura. Pelaburan baru menyumbang sebanyak 32.2% kepada
ekonomi Indonesia sementara perbelanjaan kerajaan menyumbang hanyalah
9.1% kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Keseluruhan pencapaian ini berasaskan
perbelanjaan kerajaan yang berhemah dan tidak berlebihan. Angka
defisit fiskal dan hutang kerajaan hanyalah masing-masing 1.1% dan
28.3% berbanding KDNK bagi tahun 2010.
Keadaannya sangat berbeza di Malaysia. Jumlah hutang Kerajaan
Persekutuan telah mencecah RM407 bilion menjelang akhir 2010,
bersamaan 53.1% berbanding saiz KDNK negara. Kegagalan merancakkan
pelaburan swasta menyebabkan kerajaan terlalu bergantung kepada projek-
projek mega dan perbelanjaan kerajaan untuk mencapai sasaran
pertumbuhan ekonomi, sehinggakan defisit fiskal menjadi salah satu
masalah utama ekonomi negara.
Defisit fiskal negara memuncak pada aras 7% dalam tahun 2009 dan hanya
menurun kepada 5.6% tahun lalu, sedangkan sasaran kerajaan yang
diumumkan di dalam Rancangan Malaysia Ke-10 adalah 5.3% bagi tahun
2010. Malaysia hanya berjaya menarik aliran masuk pelaburan asing
(FDI) sebanyak USD7 bilion dalam tahun 2010, jauh ditinggalkan
Singapura yang mendapat sejumlah USD37.4 bilion aliran masuk pelaburan
asing.
Berdasarkan angka-angka dan perbandingan ini, jelas bahawa pertumbuhan
7.2% hanyalah satu lagi bukti bahawa ekonomi kita semakin
terkebelakang berbanding dengan negara jiran. Daya saing Malaysia di
pasaran antarabangsa semakin merudum dan kedudukan fiskal serta
kewangan negara lebih buruk berbanding negara-negara jiran.
Rakyat tidak akan terkeliru dengan pelbagai kempen dan janji manis
yang dibuat kerajaan dan akan terus menuntut reformasi ekonomi agar
prospek ekonomi yang malap ini dapat diubah. Reformasi ekonomi hanya
akan berkesan sekiranya didokong oleh reformasi politik yang ikhlas.
Malangnya, Kerajaan Persekutuan yang ada telah dibuktikan berkali-kali
tiada keikhlasan dalam melaksanakan reformasi politik. Makanya,
sebarang dasar ekonomi yang diperkenalkan sebagai reaksi politik tidak
akan berjaya menyelesaikan masalah kemalapan ekonomi Malaysia.
DATO' SERI ANWAR IBRAHIM
KETUA PEMBANGKANG
19 FEBRUARI 2011
===
MALAYSIAN ECONOMY IN 2010:
CONTINUING A TREND OF UNDER PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO NEIGHBOURS
The growth rate of 7.2% registered by the Malaysian economy in 2010
requires a closer scrutiny to understand its full ramifications.
The 7.2% growth should not be viewed in vacuum and must be compared
with what our neighbours had achieved in 2010. Singapore and Indonesia
registered a growth of 14.5% and 6.1% respectively in 2010. Both
outperform Malaysia's growth by miles especially considering that
Indonesia's 6.1% growth was calculated on a higher base as Indonesia
did not face economic contraction in 2009 unlike Malaysia or
Singapore.
In the case of Singapore, the 14.5% growth was achieved on the back of
a strong rebound in manufacturing sector which recorded an annual
growth of 29.7%. Our performance pales in comparison on both accounts
– the growth is half of what Singapore achieved while the growth in
manufacturing sector was only 11.4% for 2010, nearly a third of
Singapore's manufacturing growth.
There was a big contrast in the way each government explains this in
spite of the fact that both countries are export oriented and highly
dependent on the global economy – while Singapore cites a strong
external demand for its manufacturing products, Malaysia claims the
opposite. The reality is our manufacturing products are steadily
losing its competitiveness in the global market as we are relegated to
the lower rung of the value chain while competitors like Singapore
upgrade higher and higher on the value chain. This was pointed out a
decade ago, yet nothing effective has been put in place to stem this
decline apart from continuous rhetoric paid for by taxpayers' money.
The relatively lower manufacturing growth is compounded by
contractions in the fourth quarter of 2010 in two fundamental sectors
of the economy. Both mining and agriculture form a significant revenue
earner for the Federal Government in the form of income from oil and
gas extraction and palm oil. Mining and agriculture sectors registered
contractions of 1.3% and 4.3% respectively in the fourth quarter. The
annual growth of only 0.2% and 1.7% in mining and agricultural sectors
respectively is another symptom of stagnation plaguing the economy.
This is correlated by key indices used to gauge the sentiment of
business community and the public on the direction of the economy. The
Business Condition Index published by the Malaysian Institute of
Economic Research (MIER) loses 5.4 points quarter-to-quarter in the
last quarter of 2010, to settle below 100 points for the first time in
nearly two years. In fact, the business community's confidence on the
overall outlook of the economy had been on the decline since the
beginning of 2010. As for the public sentiment, while the Consumer
Sentiments Index did improve to 117.2 points in the fourth quarter, it
has not recovered to the level of 2007 prior to the fuel price hike of
2008.
YAB Dato' Seri Najib should have been more forthcoming with the public
to admit that there is a big disconnect between his economic
grandstanding via ETPs and the reality felt by the business community
and the public. There is a high degree of scepticism that the series
of announcements made are only a smokescreen that will benefit the
same type of ruling and business elites while the fundamental problems
of the economic are left unhealed.
The fiscal management of the economy also reveals a stark difference
between Malaysia and our neighbours, especially Indonesia.
Unlike Malaysia, Indonesia has managed to avoid recession in 2009 and
continued to register a strong growth of 6.1% in 2010 in spite of the
higher growth base, making it one of the best performing economies
among the world's top 20 rich and developing countries. United Nations
Global Investment Trend Monitor (published by UNCTAD on 17 January
2011) recorded Indonesia's foreign direct investment inflows at
USD12.8 billion in 2010; only second to Singapore in this region in
terms of attracting FDIs. New investments contribute 32.2% to the
country's economy while government expenditure only contributes 9.1%
to the economic growth. This sterling performance was achieved on the
back of moderate government spending – Indonesia's fiscal deficit and
public sector debt was only 1.1% and 28.3% of its GDP respectively in
2010.
Malaysia's economic story is the opposite of Indonesia's. The total
Federal Government debt has ballooned to RM407 billion as at the end
of 2010, representing 53.1% of the GDP. The stagnation in private
investments had caused the government to rely on pump priming to fuel
the economic growth, so much so that fiscal deficit remains one of the
biggest economic problems the country is facing. Fiscal deficit peaked
at 7% in 2009 and only moderated to 5.6% in 2010, above the
government's own target of 5.3% as set out in 10th Malaysian Plan.
Malaysia only managed to attract USD7 billion worth of FDIs in 2010
compared to USD37.4 billion achieved by Singapore.
Against this backdrop, the 7.2% growth is yet another proof that our
economy is sliding downwards relative to our neighbours. We are losing
our competitiveness and our fiscal position is in a lot worse shape
compared to the neighbours.
No amount of glossing and public relations campaigns can confuse the
public of the urgent need to institute vital economic reforms to
reverse the slide. Economic reforms can only be effective if
complimented by an equally strong set of political reforms.
Unfortunately, this government is incapable of embracing political
reforms as proven time and time again, so any reactionary new economic
policies will not be able to address the malaise of the Malaysian
economy.
DATO' SERI ANWAR IBRAHIM
LEADER OF OPPOSITION
19 FEBRUARY 2011